Week 18 opponent: vs. Panthers (5-11) | Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS

My model projects the Bucs beat the Panthers in 58.6 percent of simulations, bringing them to 13-4 for the season. I also have the 49ers upsetting the Rams, dropping L.A. to 12-5, but only in 51.3 percent of simulations. The Bucs appear destined to face the Eagles this postseason, whether Tampa Bay finishes as the second or third seed: If the Bucs finish at No. 2, they’d face the seventh-seeded Eagles in my highest probability outcome; if they’re the No. 3 seed, they’d face the sixth-seeded Eagles in my second-highest probability outcome. In fact, the Bucs take on the Eagles in 90.8 percent of my playoff brackets.

As it has throughout his career, Tom Brady’s quick release has helped him avoid pressure this season. His 2.50-second average time to throw is his fastest of the NGS era. Only Ben Roethlisberger has been faster at 2.39 seconds; though, Brady’s air yards per attempt (8.0) wallops Big Ben’s (6.8). Brady has been under pressure on only 14.9 percent of dropbacks, which trails only Derek Carr’s 2016 rate of 12.8 percent for any quarterback since 2016. When kept clean, Brady leads all players in attempts (598), completions (420) and passing yards (4,455) in a single season since 2016.