One of the strangest Heisman Trophy races in memory is nearing the finish line with one preseason contender in good shape.
Nearly everyone else, however, fell off a cliff as front-runner Bryce Young is the only finalist who entered the year among the top three contenders. Other finalists announced Monday evening, Pitt QB Kenny Pickett and Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson, came from way off the radar while Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud was a top-five preseason pick.
Young and Stroud are the only players who played with the consistency to remain among the favorites from Labor Day weekend through the conference championships. He moved from third in preseason betting lines to the favorite after his opening week performance against Miami as some of the top contenders fell off a cliff almost immediately.
Of the top 10 players in the SportsLine preseason odds, three lost starting quarterback jobs, two got hurt and a few others under performed. Only Young, Stroud, and Ole Miss’ Matt Corral met expectations among the preseason top 10.
Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler was the preseason favorite nearly everywhere but he lost his starting job in the middle of the sixth game of the season and later entered the transfer portal. He completed 140 of 187 passes for 1,483 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions before Caleb Williams won the job with a comeback against Texas. The freshman briefly earned Heisman buzz before losing two of the final five games with a narrow escape at lowly-Kansas effectively ending any shot of his dark horse bid.
Clemson’s D.J. Uiagalelei also had preseason buzz after playing well in Trevor Lawrence’s absence with COVID-19 last year. A season-opening 10-3 loss to Georgia that included a 19-for-37 passing line with 178 yards. A Pick-6 interception decided the game and threw dirt on his Heisman hopes for a team that opened the season 4-3 due in large part to offensive deficiencies.
Preseason Heisman odds |
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1. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma 11-2 |
2. D.J. Uiagalelei, Clemson 7-1 |
3. Bryce Young, Alabama 9-1* |
4. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State 10-1* |
5. JT Daniels, Georgia 12-1 |
6. Sam Howell, North Carolina 15-1 |
7. D’Eriq King, Miami 18-1 |
8. Kedon Slovis, USC 20-1 |
9. Matt Corral, Ole Miss 20-1 |
10. Bijan Robinson, Texas 25-1 |
Source: SportsLine |
* Finalist |
Georgia’s JT Daniels and USC’s Kedon Slovis lost jobs during the season with Stetson Bennett taking over when Daniels got hurt and held on after the September starter was healthy.
Miami QB D’Eriq King entered the year slowed by an ACL injury before a right shoulder injury ended his season in October. And North Carolina’s Sam Howell played a complete season but with the Tar Heels going 6-6, his big numbers never came.
Corral became a midseason favorite before slipping just enough in losses to Alabama and Auburn to allow Young back into better position.
Ohio State’s Stroud was a favorite during an eight-game winning streak and an offensive outburst included a 56-7 win over then-No. 7 Michigan State. Losing 42-27 a week later at Michigan to miss the Big Ten title game was a dagger despite strong numbers in a 34-for-49 day with 394 yards and two touchdowns. He was sacked four times — three by Aidan Hutchinson to give his candidacy added credence.
Young left Thanksgiving weekend a tentative favorite coming off an uneven Iron Bowl that ended with masterful quarterback play in the comeback 24-22 win. The prospect of facing Georgia’s top-ranked defense after Alabama struggled on the offensive line at Auburn seemingly left the race undecided.
Young ended that with a second quarter to remember, leading five straight scoring drives and building a lead it wouldn’t surrender in Atlanta.
Now it appears he’s in control of a race that’ll end Saturday evening in New York. Neither Rattler nor Uiagalelei will be in Manhattan for the presentation in the latest example of preseason Heisman picks falling short as Young steered through the carnage and within sight of college football’s biggest individual prize.
Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.