The Green Bay Packers’ backfield has been a fun discussion in recent weeks, in large part because of the injury to Aaron Jones and the production that AJ Dillon posted in his absence. Coming out of a bye week with Jones no longer on the injury report, there’s a lot to sort through with this backfield ahead of Week 14. What should fantasy football managers expect this week?
Aaron Jones injury update
Jones suffered an MCL sprain in the Packers’ romp of the Seattle Seahawks on November 14, forcing him to miss a week. Initially, I thought the most likely scenario would be that they would let Jones rest for two weeks before heading into their bye and then bring him back now (Week 14) for a playoff run.
Instead, Jones was able to fight his way back onto the field in Week 12. Clearly, Green Bay intended to use Jones sparingly while continuing to give Dillon a majority of the carries, as Jones had only 7 carries to Dillon’s 21. Even in limited work, Jones was able to make big plays, catching 4 passes for 61 yards. On only 11 touches, Jones earned fantasy managers 10.6 fantasy points in half-PPR formats.
AJ Dillon has looked good lately
Let’s get this out of the way — no, Dillon is not taking Jones’ job. However, he’s done okay with the touches he’s been given (which have been a lot). In the Seahawks game that saw Jones leave the field early, Dillon was handed 23 touches and found the end zone twice, posting a huge and unexpected fantasy day. However, he mustered only 66 rushing yards on 21 carries in that contest.
A lack of efficiency is one thing that has stood out in recent weeks, despite the large workload.
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Over the last three games with Jones either limited or missing altogether, Dillon has averaged only 3.62 yards per carry. The 2 touchdowns he had in Week 10 were also the only 2 rushing TDs he’s had this season.
However, Dillon has contributed in other ways, proving to be serviceable in the passing game. He has caught all 13 of his targets for 42.3 receiving yards per game, turning one of those receptions into a TD against the Rams before their bye week. When asked to be a lead back, he’s done well.
Jones’ fantasy expectations
It’s important to remember that this recent hot stretch has been with an injured Jones. Coming out of their bye week, Jones isn’t even listed on the injury report. He’s a full go for this Sunday against the Bears and figures to take his lead role back.
Prior to Jones’ injury, Dillon averaged 8.4 carries and 1.8 targets per game this season. He had only 16 targets in the first nine games. The 13 targets over the last three games have directly been because of Jones not being healthy.
Jones is an explosive playmaker that is one of the better receiving backs in the NFL. In those same first nine games of the season, Jones had 41 targets. He also had 7 scrimmage TDs.
The Packers enjoy using a second running back. Before Dillon, it was Jamaal Williams used to spell Jones. We should expect Dillon to continue to be a part of this game plan, but with no limitations to Jones, Dillon returns to being a potentially low-floor flex play. Jones, on the other hand, will be Jones again — a mid-RB1.
