The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos will get the Saturday NFL double-header started when these two AFC West rivals square up at Mile High. The Chiefs enter the final week of the regular season hoping to jump back up as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They fell out of that spot due to last week’s loss to Cincinnati and now need a win coupled with a Titans loss to secure home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. As for Denver, they are playing out the string at 7-9 as Drew Lock is set to make another start in the season finale.
In this space, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this matchup has on deck for us. We’ll be taking a look at how the lines have shifted throughout the week leading into Saturday and, of course, give you our picks for this game along with a handful of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Saturday, Jan. 8 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -11, O/U 45
Line movement
Latest Odds:
Denver Broncos
+11
The Chiefs originally were just a 3-point favorite in this head-to-head, which was largely due to the team sitting as the No. 1 seed at the time and in a situation to presumably rest their starters in this game. Following that loss to Cincinnati, this game now carries more weight for K.C. and the line has jumped tremendously to Chiefs -11.
The pick: Chiefs -11. While the division is locked up, there’s still a chance K.C. can get back as the No. 1 seed, so it doesn’t seem like Andy Reid will be pulling any punches in this matchup. The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS over their last seven games and have covered four of their five divisional games this season. Meanwhile, Denver’s offense has looked putrid as of late and while Drew Lock is expected to start for the Broncos, he’s likely less than 100% after leaving last week due to an injury on his throwing shoulder. It’s hard to envision a scenario where Denver can keep up with a highly motivated Chiefs team.
Key trend: Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Over/Under total
The total has seen an uptick since opening at 43.5, but it hasn’t been as meteoric as the spread. Coming out of Week 17, this number jumped up a point to 44.5 and eventually climbed to 45 on Wednesday.
The pick: Under 45. The Broncos were able to limit Patrick Mahomes in their earlier matchup at Arrowhead this season, when the quarterback threw for just 184 yards and an interception. If they can replicate that type of showing in their building, we should be looking at a lower-scoring affair. Meanwhile, the Denver offense isn’t much to write home about as they are averaging just 12 points per game over the last three weeks.
Key trend: Under is 8-2 in Denver’s last 10 games.
Player props to consider
Darrel Williams total rushing yards: Over 58.5 (-115). With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out, Williams will get the bulk of the touches out of the Chiefs backfield and has a pretty enticing matchup. The Broncos rank 22nd against the run in DVOA and are allowing 125.7 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. Williams is also coming off an 88-yard rushing performance last week as the starter for Kansas City.
Noah Fant total receiving yards: Over 40.5 (+100). Fant has come on strong over the last month, averaging 57.5 receiving yards in his previous four games leading into Week 18. He’s gone over this prop three times over that stretch, including a 92-yard showing last week against Los Angeles. This season, the Chiefs are allowing roughly 55 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends.
