The Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) and Denver Broncos (7-9) open the NFL’s final weekend of the regular season Saturday with a Week 18 kickoff at 4:30 p.m. ET (on ABC/ESPN). Below, we look at the playoff-bound Chiefs vs. Broncos odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Kansas City, which already clinched the AFC West crown, is tied with the Tennessee Titans (11-5) for the best record in the conference. However, because the Chiefs lost at the Titans 27-3 in Week 7, Tennessee wins the tiebreaker.
To earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed and bye, Kanas City needs to beat Denver and a Tennessee loss or tie at the Houston Texans (4-12) Sunday, or K.C. needs a tie vs. Denver and a Tennessee loss.
If the Chiefs lose at Denver, they could fall as low as the No. 4 seed.
Meanwhile, the Broncos were eliminated from playoff contention after a 34-13 loss at the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17. It was Denver’s third consecutive loss and assured itself a fifth straight losing season.
Also see: All Week 18 odds and lines
Chiefs at Broncos odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:25 a.m. ET.
Money line: Chiefs -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Broncos +380 (bet $100 to win $380)
Against the spread (ATS): Chiefs -9.5 (-120) | Broncos +9.5 (+100)
Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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ATS records: Chiefs 8-8 | Broncos 7-9
O/U records: Chiefs 9-7 | Broncos 4-12
Chiefs at Broncos key injuries
Chiefs
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder) out
RT Lucas Niang (knee) out
Broncos
QB Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) out
LB Bradley Chubb (reserve/COVID-19 list) questionable
LB Jonathon Cooper (reserve/COVID-19 list) questionable
CB Ronald Darby (shoulder) out
CB Nate Hairston (illness) questionable
DE Shelby Harris (ankle) questionable
OL Dalton Risner (elbow) out
CB Patrick Surtain II (calf) out
Let’s Make This Interesting
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Chiefs at Broncos odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Chiefs 31, Broncos 10
Money line
PASS. The Chiefs will prevail, but the -540 price is way too steep and not wise sports gambling.
Kansas City has won the last 12 games in this series, including a 22-9 victory in Week 13 as 8.5-point home favorites.
The last time the Chiefs visited Denver, they dominated in a 43-16 rout in Week 7 last season as 7-point favorites.
The Broncos’ last win in the series was a 31-24 road victory in Week 2 of 2015.
Against the spread
KANSAS CITY -9.5 (-120) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
The Chiefs will be motivated with a shot at claiming the AFC’s top seed, which comes with a bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Currently seeded second, they don’t want to fall into a lower seed, which could mean more road games.
They also might feel the need to prove something to themselves after blowing a lead and losing 34-31 at the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The setback snapped an eight-game winning streak for Kansas City, which was a 3.5-point favorite at Cincy.
Sure, the Broncos have pride and don’t want to get rolled, especially at home, but they’re a banged-up bunch, especially in the secondary. Starting CBs Surtain and Darby are out, and backup Hairston is questionable.
With Bridgewater done for the season, QB Drew Lock will make his third consecutive start. He completed 18 of 25 passes in last week’s loss to the Chargers, throwing for 245 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions.
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head matchups.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight lean toward the Under 44.5 (-105).
There’s no telling how the fourth quarter will go. If the Chiefs have a big lead, they might take their foot off the gas and start resting guys for the postseason.
Lock is more than capable of leading the Broncos offense, but he has only thrown 1 touchdown in the last two games. At least he didn’t throw any interceptions.
As for the last seven Kansas City-Denver tilts, the Under is 5-1-1.
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