Cliches are often cliches because they are true. The same theory often applies for basic football analysis. The 49ers pushed the Rams around up front in Week 18, as they’ve done for much of the Sean McVay era. With their season on the line, San Francisco’s pass rush got home quickly, and the defensive line stuffed the Rams’ running game. Despite Los Angeles snagging two interceptions, it took one of Matthew Stafford‘s best games all season, packed with wow throws, just to get the Rams to overtime. 

Stafford crushes the blitz; just ask Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. The 49ers don’t need to blitz, so the key matchup in this game will be the 49ers’ front four against the Rams’ offensive line. If given any semblance of time, Stafford will find open receivers.

The quarterback mismatch here feels especially pronounced after the last few weeks. Jimmy Garoppolo is regressing, perhaps due to injury. He has two touchdowns and six picks in his last four starts. Pro Football Focus credits him with two big-time throws in that span and 10 (!) turnover-worthy plays. Stafford, on the other hand, is on a heater. 

So is the Rams’ defense. The 49ers countered the Rams’ fearsome pass rush in Week 18 by getting the ball out of Garoppolo’s hands even faster than usual, but he still took three sacks and had three turnover-worthy plays. The expected presence of 49ers left tackle Trent Williams, who missed the first meeting, should make a difference. But right tackle Tom Compton has a lot to deal with on the other side, and Williams needs to be at full strength to grapple with Von Miller, who has turned the clock back to 2018. 

The Rams’ secondary, which lost both starting safeties during the collapse against the 49ers, has improbably looked better with recently un-retired Eric Weddle and Nick Scott making plays on the back end. (One starter, Taylor Rapp, is expected to return.) They will be tested, because the 49ers’ receivers and running backs are the hardest to tackle in open space in the league.

In a game where so little separates the two teams, it could come down to game management. McVay’s conservative approach with the lead has hurt him in recent games, including against the 49ers. I believe McVay will learn from those fresh experiences and give Stafford the leeway to take his team to the promised land.

Both coaches knew at the end of the 2020 season that they weren’t good enough at the quarterback position, and both made dramatic moves to upgrade, sending away multiple draft picks. But only one of those newly acquired quarterbacks is playing in this game. In a matchup where both defenses are peaking, that’s going to be the difference.