Intro by Doug Kezirian
After NFL bettors survive a triple-header on Thanksgiving, they have to tackle a Sunday card that offers an unusual amount of short spreads and games that seemingly will come down to the final few minutes. Only one Sunday game has a point spread above 4.5 points, thanks to nine games featuring a line of 3.5 points or less.
“When you really dissect each game, it’s a really good slate. It’s still a little early to be talking playoffs, but teams that are in the hunt have big games,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “For the most part, when you look at all the matchups, they’re pretty competitive and they mean a lot.”
The early slate is headlined by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) visiting the Indianapolis Colts, while the afternoon’s marquee matchup is the Green Bay Packers (pick ’em) hosting the Los Angeles Rams. Sunday Night Football involves a divisional showdown with the Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) hosting the Cleveland Browns.
Each week during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (13-20-2, 1-1 last week), Tyler Fulghum (9-23, 1-3), Joe Fortenbaugh (34-27-1, 0-4) and Anita Marks (173-161, 8-15), Fantasy and Sports Betting analyst Eric Moody (85-75, 6-15), ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth Walder (45-41, 4-2) and Mackenzie Kraemer (4-10, 1-2), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (23-18-1, 2-1) and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz (36-28, 2-4) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through Week 11.)
Here are their best bets for Week 12.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Bears-Lions | Raiders-Cowboys | Bills-Saints | Steelers-Bengals | Buccaneers-Colts | Panthers-Dolphins | Titans-Patriots | Eagles-Giants | Falcons-Jaguars | Jets-Texans | Chargers-Broncos | Rams-Packers | Vikings-49ers | Browns-Ravens
Thanksgiving Day games
Chicago Bears (-3, 41.5) at Detroit Lions, 12:30 p.m. ET
Schatz: This is the tale of two backup quarterbacks. Andy Dalton is the backup to Justin Fields, but that’s only because the Bears need to develop Fields. Dalton has been the better quarterback this season and gives the Bears a better chance to win if Fields needs to sit out because of Sunday’s rib injury. Fields’ passing DVOA of -41.7% is the worst among qualifying quarterbacks. Dalton’s -6.5% is only slightly below average. ESPN’s QBR tells a similar story, with Dalton at 54.0 and Fields at 25.6. It’s a huge gap.
Meanwhile, for Detroit, starter Jared Goff has been bad, but backup Tim Boyle is much worse. Goff has -18.5% passing DVOA, 27th among qualifying quarterbacks. Boyle had a horrific -89.9% passing DVOA last week against Cleveland. Goff’s QBR this year is 26.8. Boyle’s QBR last week was 6.7. Single digits! He didn’t even manage 100 passing yards, and he threw two interceptions. Have I also mentioned that the Bears have a better defense than the Lions as well? I like this pick if Fields is healthy and ready to go. I love this pick if Dalton starts instead.
Pick: Bears -3
Marks: Lions coach Dan Campbell has the defense playing great football, as the unit is coming off back-to-back solid performances against the Browns and Steelers. And the under in Lions games is 7-1 over their past eight. I see both teams running the ball a lot, with sustained drives that eat up time of possession — like we will be eating holiday turkey! David Montgomery played 95% of the snaps last week for Chicago, and running backs have accounted for over 60% of the touchdowns scored against the Lions. Allen Robinson II is doubtful for the Bears, and if he doesn’t play, Darnell Mooney should get the lion’s share of targets from Dalton.
Picks: Under 41.5, Mooney over 56.5 receiving yards (-115), Dalton over 218.5 passing yards + Montgomery anytime TD (+190)
Moody: In place of an injured Fields last week, Dalton amassed 201 passing yards after the rookie had to leave because of a rib injury. Dalton has thrown for 471 yards in four games played this season, but from 2016 to 2020, he averaged 235 yards per game. Dalton should be able to accumulate passing yards against a leaky Lions secondary with the help of Mooney, tight end Cole Kmet and other offensive playmakers.
Last week against the Ravens, Mooney had his second career 100-yard game with Dalton at the helm and a career high 16 targets with Robinson sidelined by a hamstring injury. Regardless of whether Robinson plays against the Lions, Mooney will do well. Mooney has averaged 139.3 air yards per game over his past three games, clearly indicating the Bears are eager to involve him.
Kmet was targeted twice last week against the Ravens. In the previous four games, he averaged 6.2 targets and 50 receiving yards. Kmet has a distinct advantage over the Lions’ linebackers. Dalton should find him early and often.
Additionally, the Bears have an advantage in the rushing game, which benefits Montgomery. While Chicago’s offensive line ranks ninth in run block win rate, the Lions’ defense ranks 22nd in run stop win rate. With 140.5 rushing yards allowed per game, Detroit has the league’s second-worst run defense. In six active games this season, Montgomery has averaged 16 rushing attempts and 71.7 rushing yards per game. He rushed for 106 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions earlier this season. It would be no surprise if he performed similarly on Thanksgiving.
The Lions will be without Goff for a second straight game. In his debut as a starter, Boyle passed for only 77 yards and two interceptions against the Browns. It would be prudent for the Lions to focus their offensive game plan around running back D’Andre Swift. His talent makes him capable of carrying the entire offense for the Lions, as Jonathan Taylor has done for the Colts. This season, Swift has averaged 20.4 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 97.3 total yards per game. Devonta Freeman, Najee Harris, Elijah Mitchell, Leonard Fournette and Aaron Jones have averaged 20 touches and 99 total yards against the Bears over the last five games.
Picks: Dalton over 218.5 total passing yards (-115), Mooney over 56.5 receiving yards (-115), Kmet over 36.5 receiving yards (-115), Montgomery over 77.5 rushing yards (-115), Montgomery first touchdown scorer (+360), Swift over 102.5 rushing+receiving yards (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 50.5), 4:30 p.m. ET
Marks: The Cowboys are expected to be without CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. The Raiders offense has struggled without wide receiver Henry Ruggs III, scoring no more than 16 points in any of their past three games. The Cowboys defense was able to hold the Chiefs to three points in the second half of Sunday’s game, and with a short work week, I like the under. Ezekiel Elliott is dealing with a knee injury, so expect Tony Pollard to pick up the slack, and without Cooper active, Dalton Schultz should have another productive day.
Pick: Under 50.5, Pollard over 39.5 rushing yards (-120), Schultz over 50.5 receiving yards (-120)
Moody: The Raiders will lean heavily on Derek Carr and the passing game as a 7.5-point underdog against Dallas. Carr is averaging 304 passing yards per game on the season but just 238 per game over the past two. Following the release of Ruggs and the signing of DeSean Jackson, the Raiders’ offense is still trying to get back on track. Vegas gets resynchronized this week.
A Cowboys offensive line that has the fifth-highest run block win rate leads to a running game that ranks fifth with 133.8 yards per game. Elliott is averaging 15 rushing attempts and 69.5 rushing yards per game this season and has a great chance to surpass that per-game average now that he is close to full strength after working through a knee injury and is facing the Raiders’ fourth-worst rush defense, which is allowing 132 rushing yards per game. The Cowboys will likely rely heavily on their running game since Cooper, and possibly Lamb, will not be available. In the passing game, Michael Gallup should be the top beneficiary. He was targeted 10 times last week against the Chiefs, racking up 104 receiving air yards (a measure of how far the ball travels in the air from the line of scrimmage, regardless of whether the pass is completed). Gallup should do well against a beatable Raiders secondary.
Picks: Carr over 263.5 passing yards (-115), Elliott over 62.5 rushing yards (-115), Gallup over 58.5 receiving yards (-115)
Kezirian: I imagine I’m not alone with this teaser, but popularity does not prevent a play from winning. I have faith in the Cowboys to win this game. I realize they are short-handed without Cooper and possibly Lamb, but it’s also a good spot to back Dallas off the loss in Kansas City. The Raiders are obviously reeling now with three straight losses and having failed to cover in any of them. At some point they figure to play a decent game; they do still have talent. However, they’ve endured a lot this season and I have to back the Cowboys to get the win.
Pick: Cowboys -1.5 in 6-point teaser with Patriots -0.5
Fortenbaugh: In the three contests since the Raiders dropped Ruggs from the roster, the offense has 16 points against the Giants, 14 points against the Chiefs and 13 points against the Bengals while averaging only 326.6 yards of offense per game. Meanwhile, the Cowboys will be without Cooper (COVID) and could also be without Lamb, who suffered a concussion in Sunday’s loss at Kansas City. I’m surprised this total is north of 50 points.
Pick: Under 50.5, Cowboys -1.5 in 6-point teaser with Patriots -0.5
Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 45.5) at New Orleans Saints, 8:20 p.m. ET
Marks: The Turkey Day late game has hit the under six straight years, and I’m betting on this being the seventh. The Bills defense needs to rebound after a horrible performance against the Colts last week. And the Saints could be without seven of their 11 starters, including crucial players Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram II. I’m not certain which Bills offense will show up, but regardless, the Saints defense is not an easy test.
Pick: Under 45.5
Walder All last year I filled this space with Stefon Diggs overs. But it’s a new season, and things are different. Diggs’ target rate dropped from 29% to 27%, his target share fell from 29% to 25% and his catch rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, is down from +12% to +5%. At this point we have to believe what we’re seeing. Diggs’ target opportunity does not justify this line; his expected receiving yards based on air yards, expected completion probability and expected YAC is just 66.4 per game this season. Even knowing Diggs converts expected yards to actual yards at an above average rate, the under looks like the right side here.
Pick: Diggs under 79.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moody: Marquez Callaway‘s receiving yardage has fluctuated like a roller coaster this season. Over the past five games, he has averaged 5.2 targets and 67.6 receiving air yards. As the Bills offense attempts to bounce back from their humiliation by the Colts, Callaway will have a lot of chances to rack up yards as the Saints offense tries to catch up.
Dawson Knox appears to have fully recovered from his hand injury. He was targeted 10 times against the Colts and had his second-most receiving air yards in a game (68). While Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders terrorize opponents deep, Knox should remain active in the middle of the field for the Bills offense. A few weeks ago, the Saints allowed Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts to accumulate 62 receiving yards. Last week, Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert had 62 receiving yards against them. Knox might be able to do the same.
Sanders has caught 12 of 19 targets for 118 yards over his past four games. In addition to not having to face Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore, Sanders will want to put up a strong showing against his former team. Sanders has averaged 105.5 receiving yards in his two games against New Orleans.
Picks: Callaway over 36.5 receiving yards (-115), Knox over 35.5 receiving yards (-110), Sanders over 42.5 receiving yards (-115)
Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET games
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5, 45)
Schatz: Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are essentially tied in both Football Outsiders DVOA (where the Bengals are 21st and the Steelers 22nd) and ESPN’s FPI (where the Bengals are 20th and the Steelers 21st). Combine that with the lack of home-field advantage in the NFL this season, and I’m not sure how this line got so high. Yes, we want to adjust for the defensive injuries that the Steelers are struggling with. But we also need to adjust for the fact that their overall DVOA would be higher than Cincinnati’s if we took out the game a couple weeks ago started by Mason Rudolph instead of Ben Roethlisberger. In fact, despite Joe Burrow‘s impressive fantasy numbers this year, the Steelers have the better offensive DVOA even including the Rudolph game — and we know that offense is more predictive than defense or special teams.
Pick: Steelers +4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 51.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Bearman: Quick, who has the best offense in football over the last eight weeks? Bucs? Chiefs? Bills? Nope. The Indianapolis Colts, who have averaged 31.6 PPG over that span. Anyone want to face this Colts team right now? They have won six of their last eight, with the two losses coming after blowing a 14-point lead to the Titans and losing in OT and after blowing a 19-point lead to the Ravens and eventually falling in OT. We are looking at a team that very easily could be on an eight-game winning streak after dropping the first three games of the season.
I wrote in this column last week that the Colts were being undervalued because of the 0-3 and 1-4 start and should not have been a 7-point dog to Buffalo. The betting market is catching up a little, as this is only a 3-point spread, but the Colts are still at home, have the best running back in football and are catching three points. Over those aforementioned eight games, Indy is averaging a league-best 164.8 rushing yards per game, more than double of the bottom five teams. RB Jonathan Taylor is averaging 118.9 yards on the ground and over 150 from scrimmage with 15 TDs during this span, throwing himself right into the MVP conversation.
The Colts sit two games back (and lost the tiebreaker) in the division to Tennessee, but with the Titans missing Derrick Henry, never say never. This game will be a good litmus test for Indy and Taylor, facing the defending champs and top rushing defense in the league. The Bucs have held teams to 78.4 rush yards per game, but that’s up from the 45.8 rush yards they allowed over the first five weeks. The last five games have seen Tampa give up 111 rushing yards per game, allowing the Eagles, Saints and Bears to all go for over 100. The Bucs, after losing two straight to the Saints and Washington Football team, seemed to get right Monday night vs. the Giants, but now have short rest before a date with the league’s hottest team. Tampa is winless (0-5) against the number on the road this season and winless (0-3 ATS) vs. teams with a winning record. I’ll take the red-hot Colts plus a FG at home.
Pick: Colts +3
Marks: The Colts are a different animal than the Giants and will reveal the Bucs’ weaknesses on a short work week. Taylor is averaging 6.6 yards per carry over his last six games and will be a true test for the Tampa rush defense. The Bucs’ blitz rate is top 3 in the league, and Carson Wentz has been solid against the blitz, throwing seven touchdown passes and only one interception this season in the red zone. Michael Pittman will get a lot of volume against a blitz-happy defense, with Wentz looking to get the ball out quickly.
Pick: Colts +3
Carolina Panthers (-1.5, 42) at Miami Dolphins
Bearman: After a surprisingly poor start to the season, the Miami defense has started to resemble the 2020 unit that finished near the top of most statistical categories. After holding down Josh Allen and the Bills for most of the game a month ago, the Dolphins defense dominated the Texans, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens and shut down the Jets last week, only allowing a broken coverage TD and a short-field TD. Over the four games, the defense is third in the league in points allowed (15.5 PPG), second in defensive efficiency and has held QBs to a 30.8 QBR, second-best in the league.
Unlike the Dolphins and their recent surge, the Panthers have done it all year on defense, ranking second in the league in total yards allowed per game (288.7), sixth in PPG (20.0) and first against the pass (174.2 YPG). So we have two solid defenses who aren’t exactly facing explosive offenses.
Both teams have seen an uptick in offense, as Carolina welcomed Cam Newton back and the Dolphins offense looks like it might be starting to open up with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa. But make no mistake, these offenses are still struggling, as Miami comes in 29th in yards per play and Carolina 30th. The Panthers’ rushing unit (15th in the NFL) is the only unit on both teams in the upper half of the statistical rankings — and that’s barely there. The Dolphins are very much a dink-and-dunk team that will score out of the gate and then disappear for the middle quarters. None of the last four Dolphins games (since the defense started playing well) have reached the listed 42 total, and I don’t expect this one to either.
Pick: Under 42
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-6.5, 44.5)
Schatz: Our DVOA ratings have had the Titans much lower than their record would indicate for weeks now, and public perception is starting to catch up to our numbers after last week’s loss to Houston. Despite an 8-3 record, the Titans currently rank just 18th overall — and those numbers are for the full season, which means they include games where Derrick Henry and Julio Jones were healthy. The Titans of course have no Henry and Jones this week, they may not have A.J. Brown, and they’ll definitely be without Marcus Johnson, who had become a starting receiver with Jones out but now is done for the year with a hamstring injury. The defense is dealing with a number of injuries as well, as Jackrabbit Jenkins, Rashaan Evans, and David Long all missed last week’s game.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are red hot and one of the healthiest teams in the NFL so far this season. They are up to third overall in DVOA and are second on defense. Their power running game will attack a Tennessee front that excels at rushing the passer but ranks only 18th in adjusted line yards allowed per carry on defense. Though the Patriots love to run up the middle, they’re also great running around the edges — and that’s where the Titans defense is weakest.
Pick: Patriots -6.5
Marks: The Patriots defense has been on fire of late. They give up the fewest points per game in the league (16.1), have 21 takeaways (third in the NFL), are seventh in the NFL in sacks (just three behind the leaders), and quarterbacks are only averaging a 59.6% completion percentage against them. Old school football is still alive and kicking … run the ball and play great defense! A.J. Brown is dealing with a chest injury, but even if he is active, expect the Pats to remove him from the Titans’ offensive game plan the same way they did last weekend against Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts.
Pick: Patriots -6.5, Patriots -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Vikings +9
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 45.5) at New York Giants
Fortenbaugh: Two teams headed in very different directions here. The Eagles have won three of their last four outings and now sit on the precipice of a wild-card slot while the Giants have dropped four of their last six contests, just fired offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and enter Week 12 on limited preparation following a Monday night road loss at Tampa Bay. Take note that Philly now ranks second in the NFL in rushing offense while Big Blue ranks 30th in the league in rush defense DVOA. Also worth noting is the fact that New York is a pathetic 8-20-1 ATS over its last 29 home games.
Pick: Eagles -3.5
Walder: No one wants to be on the Giants, but when I see a difference between ESPN’s Football Power Index and the market that crosses the number 3, I feel like I have to at least strongly consider it. And that’s what’s going on here; FPI, if it were setting the line, would have this at Eagles -2. The spread is -3.5, which suggests — at least in the model’s view — that Philly’s recent run has inflated its price. While the Eagles have won three of their last four, none of those wins came against particularly rough teams (Broncos, Saints, Lions), so the model isn’t convinced we should move that far on them. It still only makes Philadelphia the 18th-best team going forward. Better than the Giants, sure. But not by a field goal on the road.
Pick: Giants +3.5
Marks: The Giants gave Jason Garrett his pink slip, but they are a disaster and need to clean house. The Giants have more made field goals than touchdowns scored this season. Their defense made Tom Brady look as if he was playing flag football on Monday night. A short work week, with lots of changes, is a recipe for disaster. Meanwhile, the Eagles have been flying high the last few weeks with a rushing attack that opposing defenses have yet to figure out. Running backs are averaging 32 touches a game, and Miles Sanders should be closer to 100% this Sunday. The Giants defense is allowing over 4.5 yards per carry.
Pick: Eagles -3 (buying the hook, -130 at DraftKings; the hook is the name for the last half point of a non-whole number spread)
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (Even, 46.5)
Schatz: This is a matchup of two very bad football teams, but while the Falcons have the better win-loss record, our DVOA ratings say that Jacksonville has been the better team overall. The Jaguars are ranked higher than the Falcons in all three phases of the game: offense (25 vs. 31), defense (29 vs. 30) and special teams (28 vs. 31). I want to bring particular attention to offense, where the Jaguars have the higher yards per play (5.3 to 5.1 for Atlanta) and the higher success rate (43% to 41% for Atlanta) despite facing a slightly harder schedule of opposing defenses (third for Jacksonville, seventh for Atlanta). The Jaguars should be particularly strong on the ground in this game, as they rank fourth in run DVOA on offense while Atlanta is just 24th in run defense.
Pick: Jaguars Pk
Moody: The Falcons have burned a lot of bettors in recent weeks. For Matt Ryan and the rest of Atlanta’s offense, the Jaguars’ defense won’t pose the same challenge they saw against the Patriots, whose defense has allowed the fewest opponent yards per game over the last three games (207.3). Cordarrelle Patterson‘s return could not be better timed for Ryan against a Jacksonville defense that allows the 12th-most yards per game (363) and ranks 29th in defensive efficiency. Moving the football up and down the field should be no problem for Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Falcons defense should be able to contain Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has averaged just 169 passing yards and 0.2 passing touchdowns per game since Week 8. The Falcons should have enough of an advantage to win this game on the road.
Pick: Falcons Pk
New York Jets at Houston Texans (-2.5, 44.5)
Schatz: There are a couple of things going on here. First, the Jets defense is as bad as you think it is, dead last in the NFL in DVOA … but the Houston defense isn’t that bad at all. In fact, the Houston defense is slightly above average, ranking 10th in the NFL this year, including sixth against the pass. That plays into the second big issue with this game, which is Zach Wilson returning to start at quarterback for the Jets. We don’t know if Wilson is finally fully healthy or if he’s just forced to start because Mike White and Joe Flacco are on the COVID list, but we do know that Wilson has been much worse than either White or Flacco (or, for that matter, Josh Johnson) this season. White, Flacco, and Johnson are all slightly above 0% in passing DVOA in their limited time quarterbacking the Jets this year. (White would be below average without opponent adjustments, but he faced the top two defenses in the league, Buffalo and New England.) Wilson, on the other hand, had a -32.7% passing DVOA before he got injured. Among qualified quarterbacks, only Justin Fields has been worse this season. So we have a very bad quarterback going against an underrated pass defense on one side of the ball, and that should keep things down enough to cancel a bad quarterback going against a very bad pass defense on the other side.
The Jets went under this number in half of Wilson’s six starts this year — and the Texans aren’t going to be scoring 54 points on the Jets the way New England did in Week 7. Tyrod Taylor‘s two starts since coming back from injury have also gone under this number.
Pick: Under 44.5
Sunday’s 4 p.m. ET games
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 47.5) at Denver Broncos
Schatz: Two weeks ago I picked a Denver over and fell two points short, but I’m going back to the well. The issue here is Denver’s defense is much, much better in points allowed (third in the NFL) than in our DVOA ratings, where the Broncos are now down to 26th. DVOA is more predictive going forward. Denver actually ranks higher in offense (15th) than defense. Meanwhile, we know that the Chargers can score plenty of points. They rank third in offensive DVOA and 21st on defense, and four of their last six games have gone over this number, with a fifth just missing at 47 points. Our simulations suggest this game will go over the number roughly 72% of the time.
Pick: Over 47.5
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (Even, 48)
Fortenbaugh: There’s a reason why this game moved from Green Bay -2 to a pick ’em shortly after opening. The Rams are off the bye and have had two weeks to get ready for this matchup, which means Sean McVay has had two weeks to fix Matthew Stafford while simultaneously getting the newly-acquired Odell Beckham Jr. integrated into his offense. Green Bay’s defense got exposed in Minnesota last Sunday, putting plenty of evidence on tape as to how McVay and Stafford can formulate a plan of attack.
Pick: Rams Pk
Walder: FPI favors the Packers by just a half point here, in part because it has never truly bought in on Green Bay this year, and in part because the Rams are coming off their bye. But it also is lacking a crucial piece of information: Aaron Rodgers‘ toe injury. Rodgers is obviously the key ingredient to any Green Bay success, and if he’s not at 100%, neither is the team. If our model sees this as almost a 50/50 with a healthy Rodgers, I lean the Rams with a banged-up Rodgers.
Pick: Rams Pk
Moody: There are multiple signs that the Rams and Packers could score less than 50 points. While averaging 30.6 points per game during the first half of the season, the Rams looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Once Robert Woods was knocked out for the season with a torn ACL, the Rams hit a further roadblock, falling to the Titans and 49ers in back-to-back games in which they averaged only 13 points. Stafford averaged 268.5 passing yards per game in those losses, with two touchdowns and four interceptions. Over the first eight games of 2021, he averaged 309.7 passing yards per game with 22 touchdown passes and only four interceptions. That leads me to my next point. The Packers’ defense is formidable. The Packers had only allowed 22 points or less in each of their previous seven games before last week’s game against the Vikings, in which they surrendered 34 points. The Packers’ defense has been particularly strong at Lambeau, only allowing an average of 11 points over four games played at home. As the game goes into the early evening, the extended forecast in the area calls for temperatures at or near freezing.
Pick: Under 48
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 48)
Fortenbaugh: Like Hampton Coliseum in 1998 (Phish fans will get the reference), the Minnesota offense has come alive ever since that 16-point disaster against Cooper Rush and the Cowboys back in Week 8. Over the team’s last three outings (at Ravens, at Chargers, vs. Packers), the Vikings are averaging a healthy 30.6 points and 369 total yards per outing. This unit is going to pose a big problem for San Francisco’s highly questionable secondary. Conversely, look for Jimmy Garoppolo and company to hang a respectable number against a Vikings defense that is permitting an average of 28.6 points per game on the road this season (28th in the NFL).
Pick: Vikings +3, Over 48
Marks: The Vikings are playing sneaky good football. Minnesota’s defense is fourth in pressure rate and first in sack differential. Offensively, they are not turning the ball over. Kirk Cousins has 21 touchdown passess and only two interceptions, and his last pick was six games ago. Over the last two games, Justin Jefferson has received 21 targets, and I expect more of the same this week against the 49ers.
Pick: Vikings +3, Vikings +9 in 6-point teaser with Patriots -0.5
Kraemer: There has perhaps been no more profitable trend over the years than fading Kyle Shanahan as a home favorite. Shanahan is 3-16-2 ATS as a home favorite and has lost the last nine games outright, the longest streak by any coach in the Super Bowl era. Minnesota has been a very profitable underdog this season, going 5-1 ATS, largely because every Vikings game seems to go down to the wire. Minnesota has played nine one-score games and five games decided by three or fewer points, so I like getting at least a field goal with them. The 49ers are 2-5 when they don’t win the turnover battle, and Minnesota has just six turnovers all season, tied for the fewest in the NFL.
Pick: Vikings +3
Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET game
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 46)
Moody: When these AFC North rivals get together, things get interesting. Baltimore leads the NFL with 31.6 rushing attempts per game, while the Browns rank fifth with 30 attempts per game. Lamar Jackson’s return is obviously a big deal for Baltimore. Jackson is averaging 272 passing yards and 71 rushing yards per game this season. Baker Mayfield, on the other hand, is averaging only 216.6 passing yards per game this season while playing through multiple injuries. Because of Mayfield’s limited mobility, the Ravens’ pass rush could pose a problem for the Browns. Mayfield has been under pressure on 29.3% of his dropbacks this season and only completed 41.4% of his 58 attempts. The Ravens will want to protect their home field in prime time on Sunday night.
Pick: Ravens -3.5
Marks: Mayfield is beat up and Jackson is back in action after a week off due to an illness. The Browns nearly lost to the Lions, and the Ravens beat the Bears with their backup quarterback. The Browns’ defense has not done well against top-tier quarterbacks and will have a difficult time stopping Jackson and his explosive passing game this season. Meanwhile, Cleveland has a plethora of injuries in their wide receiving corps and may have to rely on their tight ends to generate success in the passing game.
Pick: Ravens -3 (buying the hook, -130 at DK)
