CLEVELAND, Ohio – Scribbles in my Browns notebook as they prepare to face the Packers:
1. At the start of the season, the Browns looked at the Christmas Day game in Green Bay and had to believe it would take at least 30 points to win. Unless there was a blizzard. The weather in Green Bay is supposed to be in the low 30s, light snow. Nothing extreme. Not much has changed from that first guess – they need at least 30 points to win.
2. Which brings us back to the assumption about the Browns at the start of the season, and what reality now tells us. Heading into the year, the Browns thought they’d have a top-10 offense, maybe even elite. All the ingredients appeared to be in place: the veteran offensive line, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb in the backfield along with receivers Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. They also had depth at tight end.
3. The Browns averaged 25.5 points last season. It was QB Baker Mayfield’s first year in the Kevin Stefanski offense, and he finished strong. Every key member of the offense was returning in 2021. Yet, the Browns offense has declined, down to 20.9 points per game. There have been injuries and COVID-19 problems. Mayfield is not close to his 2020 form, be it due to injuries, performance or very likely a combination of both.
4. When the Browns have been winning games this season, mostly it has been with their defense. They have scored more than 17 points only three times in the last 11 games. It’s amazing they have a 5-6 record in that span.
Illustration by Ted Crow for Crowquill. The Browns lost a tough one to Las Vegas Monday Night, now as a Christmas present they get to play Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay.
5. Meanwhile, the Packers are 11-3 and peaking. They are averaging 36 points in their last four games. Aaron Rodgers is the NFL’s highest-rated QB by Profootballfocus.com (PFF) and other analytical sites. Mayfield is rated No. 24.
6. So how can the Browns win this game? Green Bay’s defense started strong, but it’s now shaky. In those same four games where the Packers are scoring 36 points, they are giving up 30 a game. The Browns need something to come out of nowhere, such as when they beat Cincinnati 41-16 on Nov. 7.
7. The Browns won’t have Jedrick Wills Jr. back at left tackle. They have Pro Bowl guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller ready. They have lost JC Tretter (COVID), and that means Nick Harris makes his first Browns start at center after being drafted in 2020. James Hudson III will probably start at right tackle.
8. Mayfield and Case Keenum were cleared to play. This is a game where Mayfield has to be the Mayfield who put up 42 points in a loss to the Chargers or 41 vs. the Bengals. If he can make Green Bay respect his passing, Nick Chubb can have a big day running the ball.
9. This season, the Packers have had a hard time defending tight ends and running backs catching passes. This would have been a great game for Kareem Hunt (still out with COVID). But Chubb can catch the ball. So can his solid backup, D’Ernest Johnson. Landry also was cleared to play.
10. Meanwhile, the Browns defense has allowed more than 16 points only twice in the last eight games. But Myles Garrett is planning to play while dealing with a groin injury. Several defensive backs are out. Green Bay is going to score a lot of points. This game rests with the offense for the Browns.
Illustration by Ted Crow for Crowquill. The Browns have two NFL opponents left to face in the regular season, but they also have to deal with COVID-19, which is its own kind of opponent.
11. Here’s something I never thought I’d write: Meet Chris Naggar. He is kicking for the Browns today. This happened after Stefanski proclaimed Chase McLaughlin would remain as kicker. Then McLaughlin hit the COVID-19 list Friday. Naggar had been on the practice squad. He’s never kicked in an NFL regular-season game.
12. Naggar was a walk-on kicker at Texas but couldn’t win the starting job. He did some punting for the Longhorns. He transferred to SMU, where he finally had a chance to be the kicker. In 2020, he was 17-of-21 on field goals. He was 12-for-12 inside the 40-yard line. He missed his only two attempts from 50 yards. He also averaged 39.3 yards as a punter. He was 43-of-46 on extra points.
13. This is what special teams coordinator Mike Priefer said about Naggar near the end of training camp: “Really liked him coming out of SMU. He was kind of a one-year wonder because he had been a punter and backup kicker at Texas. He graduated from there and wanted an opportunity to kick at a major program in SMU. They put him on scholarship for the year, and I thought he had an outstanding year. He is still young, and he is raw, but he has a big leg. I think he is a very good young developmental kicker.”
14. Here’s the part that is hard to make up: In May, McLaughlin was with the Jets. They waived him to sign Naggar. The Browns claimed McLaughlin, and he eventually beat out Cody Parkey (who also was injured) to be the Browns kicker. The Jets then waived Naggar, and the Browns added him to the practice squad. So both Browns kickers cycled through the Jets before landing in Cleveland.
15. McLaughlin started strong, but has missed five of his last nine field goals. I was wondering if the Browns would make a change at kicker. Obviously, they didn’t think Naggar was ready – yet. Now, he has his chance.
16. My Prediction: Green Bay 33, Browns 20. I don’t see Cleveland scoring enough points.
RECENT TERRY PLUTO COLUMNS
Look at the big picture as Cavs take a Christmas break – Terry Pluto’s scribbles
Terry’s Talkin’ Podcast: Browns struggles, J.B. Bickerstaff, Guardians ownership
What are we learning about Browns and close games: Postgame Scribbles
Browns play with heart, but loss is a kick in the gut
Browns pregame scribbles: Raiders also are a mess
Terry’s Talkin’ Browns: What do we need to see for the rest of the season?
After all the drafts, trades, losing and even mistakes, the plan worked – Terry’s Talkin’ Cavs
Inside the hiring of Akron football coach Joe Morehead
The rise of Kevin & and The Cavs: Terry Pluto Scribbles
How do you feel about the Browns now? – Postgame Scribbles
It was scary, but Browns did what they needed to do to win
Yes, Cavs are a true team: Your eyes and the stats agree
How about it? Isn’t it time Browns beat the Ravens? Pregame Scribbles
=Fanatics.com
Get the latest Browns merchandise: Here’s where you can order Cleveland Browns gear online, including jerseys, T-shirts, hoodies, hats and much more.
