Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer provides insight into whether the Pentagon’s plan to send U.S. troops to the front line NATO countries will protect Ukraine.
The Biden administration is continuing to prepare a “range of severe economic measures” to impose on Russia if it further attempts an invasion into Ukraine, with senior officials saying sanctions being considered would have “massive consequences” for Moscow’s economy.
Senior administration officials on Tuesday said that, in the event of “a further invasion,” the United States will impose sanctions on Russia that would have an “immediate and visible effect on the day they are implemented.”
“That means the gradualism of the past is out, and this time, we will start at the top of the escalation ladder and stay there,” a senior administration official said. “We’ve made efforts to signal this intention very clearly, and I would say, a deepening selloff in Russian markets, its borrowing costs, the value of its currency market, imply default risk, reflect the severity of the economy consequences we can and will impose on the Russian economy in the event of a further invasion.”
The official added that in addition to financial sanctions, the U.S. is prepared to impose “novel export controls that would deal” Russian President Vladimir Putin a “weak strategic hand over the medium term.”
President Biden listens to reporter’s questions during a meeting on efforts to lower prices for working families, in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Monday, Jan. 24, 2022. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik / AP Newsroom)
The official said the export controls should be thought of as “trade restrictions in the service of broader U.S. national security interests.”
“We use them to prohibit the export of products from the U.S. to Russia and potentially certain foreign-made products that fall under U.S. export regulations,” the official said, pointing to the “global dominance” of U.S. originated software and technology.
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“The export control options we’re considering alongside our allies and partners would hit Putin’s strategic ambitions to industrialize his economy quite hard, and it would impair areas that are of importance to him, whether it’s in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, defense or aerospace, or other key sectors,” the official said.
“All options are very much on the table,” the official continued. “And we’re united with allies and partners, decisively, to impose severe consequences on Russia if it further invades Ukraine.”
Another official noted that the potential sanctions “would deliver a severe and immediate blow to Russia, and overtime, make its economy even more brittle and undercut Putin’s aspirations to exert influence on the world stage.”
Biden administration officials are collaborating with European allies to identify areas where Russia could use energy as a weapon in its “aggressive strategy” against Ukraine, a senior administration official said.
A serviceman holds his machine-gun in a shelter on the territory controlled by pro-Russian militants at frontline with Ukrainian government forces in Slavyanoserbsk, Luhansk region, eastern Ukraine, Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2022. (AP Photo/Alexei Alexandrov / AP Newsroom)
“These include for U.S. contingency planning in the event of a Russian invasion as they attempt to upend the world order, to damage infrastructure or withholding supplies and markets in retaliation for sanctions or other countermeasures,” an official said.
The U.S., at this point, is working with allies to ensure the “security” of supply and “mitigate against price shocks affecting the American people and the global economy.”
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Officials warned that a disruption would “most acutely affect natural gas markets in Europe,” and said they are “engaging” with allies to coordinate in identifying additional volumes of non-Russian natural gas from areas around the world.
“We’re in discussions with major natural gas producers around the globe to understand their capacity and willingness to temporarily surge natural gas output and to allocate these volumes to European buyers,” an official said, noting that if Russia decides to “weaponize” its supply of natural gas or crude oil, it “would not be without consequence to the Russian economy.”
The discussions of potential sanctions comes just a day after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin put 8,500 U.S. troops on heightened preparedness to deploy to Eastern Europe, as Russia threatens to invade Ukraine.
President Biden and his top national security officials have not yet made a decision on whether to deploy U.S. troops to the region.
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If the president makes the decision to send troops, U.S. military assets would be deployed to Romania, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia as part of a broader NATO effort. Other NATO countries may also contribute troops to warn Putin against moving into neighboring countries.
State Department spokesperson Ned Price speaks during a press briefing at the U.S. State Department in Washington, Monday, Jan. 24, 2022. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, Pool / AP Newsroom)
Amid heightening tensions in the region and the threat of Russian military action, the State Department ordered the evacuation of American citizens in Ukraine. Officials also ordered family members of employees at the United States Embassy in Kyiv to leave the country.
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“There are reports Russia is planning significant military action against Ukraine. The security conditions, particularly along Ukraine’s borders, in Russia-occupied Crimea, and in Russia-controlled eastern Ukraine, are unpredictable and can deteriorate with little notice,” the travel advisory states.
Ukraine’s territory has long been in Putin’s crosshairs, especially amid recent NATO considerations of potentially allowing Ukraine to join the alliance. It is one of several post-Soviet republics in the region that shifted toward an alliance with the West after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Putin was in the Soviet KGB for many years before beginning his political career, and has said the collapse of the Soviet Union was the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century.
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Putin also stresses Russian ethnic and cultural influences in Ukraine as reasons why it should be part of Russia. That was a significant part of the justification Russia used when it illegally annexed the Crimea region of Ukraine in 2014.
President Biden has warned there would be consequences for Russia if it invades Ukraine. But he also last week appeared to say that the U.S. might not respond forcefully to a “minor incursion” by Russia. That statement tipped off a wave of outrage both inside and outside the United States, followed by an effort by the White House to clean up the president’s comments.
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“I’ve been absolutely clear with President Putin. He has no misunderstanding, if any, any assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion,” Biden said, adding that this would “be met with severe and coordinated economic response that I’ve discussed in detail with our allies, as well as laid out very clearly for President Putin.”
While NATO and the United States are fortifying allies, including the Baltics, it is not likely the western alliance will send troops into Ukraine itself, where they would be at risk of a potentially major military engagement with Russia.
Fox News’ Lucas Tomlinson, Jennifer Griffin, Tyler Olson, and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
