After a moment of rejection, a little brother’s revelation and long-held faith in Justin Verlander’s freakish capabilities, the Astros again have an established ace atop their rotation.
Verlander, the two-time Cy Young winner and eight-time All-Star who elevated himself during three seasons in Houston, is returning to the Astros in 2022 on a one-year contract worth $25 million. His deal includes a player option for 2023, all but guaranteeing two more years of Verlander in an Astros uniform.
The deal is not official and pending a physical. Neither general manager James Click nor the team commented publicly Wednesday. Ben Verlander, Justin’s 29-year-old brother and burgeoning baseball reporter, divulged all the details during a dizzying, deadline-driven hour-long span that morphed a mundane November afternoon into one of Houston’s most consequential winter moments.
Verlander declined the Astros’ one-year, $18.4 million qualifying offer by Wednesday’s 4 p.m. deadline. Houston extended it only to recoup draft compensation if Verlander signed elsewhere. The team sent a press release at 4:10 to announce both Verlander and shortstop Carlos Correa rejected the offer.
Twenty-seven minutes passed before Ben Verlander — a Fox Sports analyst and podcast host — tweeted news of his brother’s reunion. Ben followed with the contract terms, which the team did not confirm.
IT’S OFFICIAL@JustinVerlander is signing with Houston Astros!!
— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) November 17, 2021
The @JustinVerlander deal with the Houston @astros is a 1 year, $25 million deal, with a player option for the 2nd year
— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) November 17, 2021
Verlander’s decision to reject the qualifying offer arrived as no surprise. Last month, Astros owner Jim Crane said Verlander sought a deal “of some length.” The fast-moving starting pitching market manifested for Verlander to command far more than $18.4 million. Noah Syndergaard signed a one-year, $21 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday.
Syndergaard also received — and rejected — a qualifying offer from the New York Mets. Both Syndergaard and Verlander underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020 — Syndergaard in March and Verlander in September. Though he intended to return late in the 2021 season, Syndergaard suffered a setback and threw just two major league innings.
By all accounts, Verlander has had a seamless rehabilitation. He impressed an array of scouts and talent evaluators — including Astros officials — during a workout last week at Cressey Sports Performance in West Palm Beach, Fla. Verlander’s fastball reached 94-96 mph during his 25-pitch bullpen session.
“He looks like himself, which is certainly very exciting,” Click said at the general managers meetings last week. “From everything that I’ve seen and everything I’ve heard, he is completely healthy. If he is and if we can find a way to bring him back to Houston, it would be a tremendous asset to have on the team.”
Click’s statement seemed another hollow offseason claim for which the Astros became known — the same rote responses reserved for Gerrit Cole in 2019, George Springer in 2020 and Correa this winter.
Verlander’s close relationship with Crane always left the Astros as a legitimate landing spot, but Click did not sound like a man seeking upgrades in his starting rotation. He described his starting pitching as in “a pretty good spot” and prioritized relief help over rotation support. Asked directly whether Houston needed a top-of-the-rotation starter, Click said “need is too strong a word.” He extolled Lance McCullers Jr. and Framber Valdez as ace-caliber pitchers. He offered a reminder of Cristian Javier’s impending return to the rotation.
Verlander’s deal arrived eight days later, allowing him an opportunity to prolong a prolific Astros career. He has a 2.45 ERA in 74 Astros starts since his acquisition in August 2017. He won the American League Cy Young Award in 2019 after finishing in second place a year prior. He struck out a career-high 300 batters during the 2019 season and posted a 0.803 WHIP.
Verlander is a generational talent, but it’s impossible to overlook his ominous last year. This contract carries substantial risk because of it. Verlander has not appeared in a major league game since July 24, 2020. He will turn 39 on Feb. 20. He underwent reconstructive elbow surgery last September. The Astros apparently maintain far more confidence in Verlander’s defiance of time and dominance into middle-age.
Verlander’s return affords the Astros seven capable starters: McCullers, Valdez, Javier, José Urquidy, Jake Odorizzi and Luis Garcia. McCullers finished seventh in American League Cy Young voting Wednesday, two days after Garcia garnered a second-place finish in American League Rookie of the Year balloting. Touted pitching prospect Hunter Brown impressed at Class AAA Sugar Land this season, putting him in the mix for a possible major league cameo in 2022, too.
Adding Verlander increases a starting surplus and presents the Astros a plethora of options. Pitchers who undergo Tommy John surgery are often under innings or appearance restrictions during their first seasons back. Whether Verlander will be subject to a similar regimen is still a mystery.
If he is, Houston could deploy a six-man rotation during parts of the season to space out Verlander’s starts and preserve his health. If Verlander needed to skip a turn in the rotation, the depth is beneficial.
More immediately, though, the reunion with Verlander only accentuates a thought that Houston could trade from its starting pitching excess to address its other needs. Click is still in the market for a shortstop. He prioritized bullpen help at the general managers’ meetings last week. Jake Meyers’ recent shoulder surgery will sideline the center fielder through opening day, forcing the team into the outfield market.
It is impossible to assess every player available on the trade market. Better return packages can pry away players deemed safe. Valdez is in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Neither he, Urquidy nor Javier will reach free agency until 2026. Garcia isn’t a free agent until 2027.
Click must be mindful of the starting depth needed to finish a season. His team needed nine starters to get through the 2021 slate. Injury and ineffectiveness whittled its rotation to two capable starters during the playoffs — a scenario Click does not want to repeat. Covering the team with enough depth is crucial. Verlander’s return accomplishes it in more ways than one.